Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About Forecasting
- What is Community Benchmark forecasting?
- What is the difference between Goal numbers and the Forecast numbers?
- What are the Actual TD numbers on the Goals page?
- Does it use static or dynamic forecasting?
- What is adjustable forecasting?
- When should forecasting be adjusted?
- How can the forecasting be adjusted?
- Are numbers forecasted for all the metrics?
- Does changing your goal change impact the forecasting numbers?
- It looks like goal is already set, do I have to set goals or do my own projections?
- What does EOY stand for? What does TD stand for?
- Can you delete a “bad” year from your forecasting numbers?
- How are these forecasting numbers calculated?
USING THE DATA
- What are some of the ways to use the forecasting numbers?
- Why set goals when your numbers have been forecasted for your winery by Community Benchmark?
- Why is Community Benchmark’s forecast better than what I can do on my own?
What is Community Benchmark Forecasting?
Community Benchmark Forecasting is a probabilistic algorithmic calculation based on your historical revenues only. Please note that the Forecast does not yet include outside factors such as economic indicators, consumer behavior, regional trends, or your specific growth initiatives and campaigns. The Forecast is your “base-case.” The Forecast projects out the existing trends in your historical data as your “status quo.”
If you would like us to adjust your forecast, for example by excluding certain years, please let us know.
What is the difference between the Goal numbers and the Forecast numbers?
The goal numbers are *your* projections for 2024 that you determine and enter yourself. You can edit your Goals at any time. The forecasted numbers are *our* 2024 projections for your winery, based on the patterns in your historical data. To accelerate your 2024 Goals setting, we have pre-populated your Goals with our Forecasts (Unless of course you already set your 2024 Goals).
What are the Actual TD numbers on the Goals page?
The Actual TD (To Date) numbers will display your wineries real results as they are updated in Community Benchmark. This means you will have three set of numbers:
- Goal numbers set by the winery
- Forecasted numbers calculated by Community Benchmark
- Actual numbers which tallies your progress over the course of the year
Does it use static or dynamic forecasting?
The forecasted numbers in the dashboard are static. It uses the current trend of your winery’s data to project your existing trend forward. At this time, the forecasted numbers will not change over time unless a “re-forecast” is requested. The forecasted numbers become a reference point “predicted based on past” throughout the year as you monitor and change your goals. During the forecasted year, if you would like to inquire about a “re-forecast” using your latest results, please send a request to firstname.lastname@example.org.
What is adjustable forecasting?
Adjustable forecasting is a method that allows for modifications and refinements to improve the model’s accuracy. These changes in the model will enable it to adapt to a winery’s unusual historical trends or circumstances over the past three years. For example, a tasting room remodel, or staffing shortage can result in anomalies in the forecasting numbers.
When should forecasting be adjusted?
The forecasting is ideally based on a winery’s three years of historical data, but sudden and erratic changes can significantly impact the model.
How can the forecasting be adjusted?
The forecasting model incorporates adjustable elements to improve forecasting accuracy and adaptability. The forecast parameters can be modified for your winery by 1) customizing the algorithm for the model, 2) modifying the periods or years that influence the forecast, or 3) adjusting the forecast weighting factors. Contact email@example.com to discuss the most appropriate adjustments to your forecasting model.
Are numbers forecasted for all the metrics?
We are starting with Tasting Room Revenue. If Community Benchmark has three years of tasting room data, it will calculate a forecasted number for those metrics. The field will be blank if it does not have three years of data (no error message). The numbers are also forecast for each month, so that it considers seasonal fluctuations.
Does changing your goal change impact the forecasting numbers?
No, changing your goals does not impact your forecast. Forecasted numbers are based on historical data/actual results.
It looks like goal is already set, do I have to set goals or do my own projections?
Yes, you do have to set your own goals but we have made this easier by pre-populating the goal with the forecasted number. In other words, we have started with our projection for your winery next year.
What does EOY stand for? What does TD stand for?
End-of-Year. To Date.
Can you delete a “bad” year from forecasting?
The forecasting is based on three years of data, and our algorithm places more weight on recent years than more distant ones. But if you believe there is a (recent) interval, that isn’t reflective of your future results (e.g. a month/year where the winery was closed unexpectedly), use caution in accepting the forecasting numbers at face value, as they may undershoot your actual results. In addition, if you can correct any errant historical data, it will help in future forecasts. If you would like to inquire about a “re-forecast” using your latest results, please send request to firstname.lastname@example.org.
USING THE DATA
What are some of the ways to use the forecasting numbers?
1) The Community Benchmark Forecast can guide you in setting your organization’s Goals in the Community Benchmark dashboard.
2) If your organization does not do Forecasting or Goal setting, the Community Benchmark Forecast offers readily available numbers to start conversations about the coming year, explore the concept of goal setting, and begin setting some quick and easy goals.
3) If your organization already does forecasting, these numbers provide additional information to compare with the outputs of your organization’s existing methods or models. We’d love to get your feedback.
4) Throughout the year, you can always compare your actual performance to the forecasted “base-case” trend to visualize where you out performed or under performed the Forecast.
Why set goals when your numbers have been forecasted for your winery by Community Benchmark?
The forecasted numbers are based on the last three years. There are many reasons a winery might set a goal that is not consistent with the past three years. For example, the winery is going to go through a two-month tasting room remodel, and therefore have set their goal numbers much lower than the forecasted numbers.
Why is Community Benchmark’s forecast better than what I can do on my own?
It’s automatically generated based on your data; therefore, no calculations are needed.